Thesis Welling Oei
On 21 June 2016 Welling Oei defended her thesis 'Modelling the risk of emerging infections for blood transfusion' at the University of Utrecht.
Promotores: Prof HL Zaaijer PhD, prof RA Coutinho PhD and prof MEE Kretzschmar PhD
Co-promoter: MP Janssen PhD
The research for his thesis was conducted at the Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care Utrecht University. The studies in this thesis were funded by Sanquin Blood Supply Foundation and partly by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control.
Summary
There is extensive documentation of transmission of a number of emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) through blood transfusion. This suggests that additional measures may be required in case an EID outbreak occurs. In order to determine whether to implement such steps, and which ones, an assessment of the seriousness of this risk is needed. In blood transfusion safety, a generic model that is applicable to any EID, can be used for a rapid assessment of the impact of an on-going outbreak specifically, is called for.
This thesis describes the development and application of models that quantify the risk posed by EIDs for blood safety. The first model allows the ranking of the risk of blood transmissible infections as regards their potential threat to transfusion safety. The second model, the European Up Front Risk Assessment Tool (EUFRAT), quantifies the transfusion transmission risk of an EID in two different scenarios: (1) transmissions by donors exposed to a local outbreak, and (2) transmission by donors returning from travels to an outbreak affected area. This latter model also allows evaluation of potential safety measures during EID outbreaks. We illustrated how the model is generally applicable to a number of outbreaks of EID with short infectivity (dengue, chikungunya) and presumed long infectivity (Q fever). To show how well the model performs we compared model estimates with data from an independent source. We also discuss how the model can be further enhanced to support decision making in transfusion safety.
Chapters
Chapter 1
Introduction
Part A: Ranking the risk of emerging infections for blood safety
Chapter 2
A consensus-based tool for ranking the risk of blood transmissible infections.
Accepted for publication in Transfusion.
Chapter 3
Insight in ‘calculated risk’: An application to the prioritization of emerging infectious diseases for blood transfusion safety.
Submitted to Risk Analysis.
Part B: Quantification of the risk of emerging infection transmission through blood transfusion
Chapter 4
Modelling the transmission of emerging infectious diseases through blood transfusion.
Transfusion 2013; 53(7):1421-8.
Chapter 4a
Appendix of the Modelling the transmission of emerging infectious disease through blood transfusion: Assessing the quantitative risk of infectious diseases to blood safety –evaluation of the European Up-Front Risk Assessment Tool (EUFRAT).
Chapter 5
Modelling the risk of transfusion transmission from travelling donors.
BMC Infect Dis 2016; 16(1):143.
Part C: Travel behaviour of Dutch blood donors
Chapter 6
Travel behaviour and deferral of Dutch blood donors: consequences for donor availability.
Transfusion 2015; 55(1):79-85.
Part D: Estimating the risk of emerging infection transmission for the Dutch blood supply
Chapter 7
Estimating the transfusion transmission risk of Q fever.
Transfusion 2014; 54(7):1705-11.
Chapter 8
Estimating the risk of dengue transmission from Dutch blood donors travelling to Suriname and the Dutch Caribbean.
Vox Sanguinis 2016 Jan 14 [Epub ahead of print]
Chapter 9
General discussion
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